Abstract: India may lose anywhere around 3–10% of its GDP annually by 2100 and its poverty rate may rise by 3.5% in 2040 due to climate change as per a recent report by Overseas Development Institute. Temperatures in India have risen by 0.7 °C (1.3 °F) between 1901 and 2018 for the rapid change in forest cover and thereby climatic trends in the country. Being heavily reliant on agriculture, these sudden climatic changes can have devastating effects on the India’s food supply and its economy.

Author: Kushagra Singh

Home > Articles > The Climate-Agriculture Nexus: Understanding the Complex Relationship and Its Implications

The Climate-Agriculture Nexus: Understanding the Complex Relationship and Its Implications

Table of Contents
Introduction
Impact of climate change on agriculture in India
Agricultural impact on Climatic Change in India
Susceptibility of Rural Communities
Natural Farming
Proposed Solutions
Current Government Initiatives
Conclusion
Study References

Introduction

Climate change poses significant challenges to agriculture in India. The interdependence of climate and agriculture is a crucial concern for India, a country heavily reliant on farming for food security and economic growth. In recent years, climate change has started to have major impacts on rural development, farmer’s economy, and agricultural output in the country.

Over the past five decades, India has witnessed a rise in average temperatures by over 0.7°C, leading to an increase in extreme weather events such as erratic monsoons, prolonged droughts, and intensified storms.

Fig. 1- Temperature change around India

This has had a profound impact on the country’s farming community, with a 25% decline in farm profits and a marked increase in farmer suicides – with over 60,000 cases recorded in the last 30 years alone.

In this paper, we will understand how rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events are disrupting crop yields and the livelihoods of farmers. Furthermore, we will be discussing upon what policies should government implement to help put these factors under check.

Impact of climate change on agriculture in India:

Rapid climate change due to global warming and other reasons in the modern scenario is affecting Agriculture in multiple ways-

Environmental Changes- Climatic changes can increase temperatures, changing precipitation patterns etc. causing changes in the seasonal length. Hotter climate can also increase the risks of wildfires that can deplete hundreds of acres of forest cover in days. Temperature and precipitation changes also make the environment more sustainable for insects, weeds, and diseases. Warmer climate can also impact the Pollination process as to when the bees and butterflies come out.
Changes in Agricultural Productivity– These climate changes have significantly impacted crop yields in India. Wheat yields have declined by 5.2% from 1980 to 2009. Rice and maize yields have also dropped. Projections indicate wheat yields may fall by 6-23% by 2050 and rice yields may fall by 2-14% under climate change scenarios. Pulses like chickpeas could see yield declines of 18-23% by 2050. By 2050, it is anticipated that some regions’ yields of legumes like soybean, pigeon pea, and peanut will drop by 20–40%.

Fig. 2- Projected changes in crop yield around the world

3. Impact on Biodiversity-Cropping patterns have also changed as a result of climate change, causing many crops to be vulnerable to new pests and diseases. Global Warming causes glaciers to melt and thus sea level rise and coastal flooding which in turn leads to saltwater intrusion thereby harming fertile lands. Changing climate can also become a threat to livestock, fisheries, and other similar agricultural activities.

Agricultural impact on Climatic Change in India

This process of climatic change is not a one-ended story. It is a vicious cycle having various factors each of which are interconnected. Farming requires land resources due to which forests are cleared reducing the forest cover which in turn disturb the ecological balance.

CO2 and Methane are two gases that play a major role in climatic change. Recent research found that majority of these emissions are due to activities related to farming. According to the study, increased livestock numbers and manure management were responsible for 78% of the rise in methane emissions between 1990 and 2016, while increases in fertiliser use were responsible for 65% of the rise in CO2 emissions.

Fig. 3- Methane emissions from different creatures

Around 80 percent of the current freshwater usage in the world directly goes to farming activities. With the advent of technology, fertilizers and insecticides are being used extensively to improve produce but they pollute water bodies and affect the surrounding Biodiversity.

Susceptibility of Rural Communities

India holds 60 percent of its population in the rural areas, more than 90 percent of which are engaged in agriculture as their main source of income. However, climate change poses a severe threat to the rural agrarian communities. Irregular weather patterns can cause varying crop produces and thus an unstable source of income for farmers. Rising temperatures and precipitation changes have also affected the livelihoods of thousands of farmers with most of them moving to cities in search of employment.

This is also visible with the decline of agriculture as a percentage of total employment in the country within the past few decades.

Fig. 4- Agriculture as a percentage of total employment

Extreme heat alongside natural calamities such as floods, droughts and cyclones caused as a product of climate changes in rural areas causes increased deaths and food crunches. A report suggests that every year 7 lakh Indians die due to abnormal climatic conditions. This extreme climate change also causes loss of biodiversity thereby causing loss of food, water, and natural resources.

Natural Farming

Conventional farming methods rely heavily on the use of artificial fertilizers and pesticides to boost crop yields and protect against pests and diseases. However, these methods can have negative impacts on soil health, water quality, and biodiversity. In contrast, natural farming methods focus on building healthy soil ecosystems that support plant growth and naturally resist pests and diseases. This involves using techniques such as composting, crop rotation, and intercropping to nourish the soil and promote biodiversity. By avoiding the use of chemicals, natural farming methods can also have positive impacts on human health and the environment.

Here are some benefits of natural farming methods:

Sustainable: Natural farming methods are sustainable and can be practiced for long periods without degrading the soil’s fertility or harming the environment.
Low cost: Natural farming methods often require fewer inputs than conventional farming methods, which can reduce costs and increase profitability for farmers.
Healthy soil: Natural farming methods focus on building healthy soil ecosystems that support plant growth and promote biodiversity. This can lead to improved soil health and fertility over time.
Improved water quality: By avoiding the use of chemicals, natural farming methods can help to improve water quality by reducing the pollutants that enter waterways.

Climate resilience: Natural farming methods can help to build climate resilience by promoting biodiversity and reducing the need for irrigation, which can help to conserve water resources.

Environmental Impacts associated with Natural Farming

Multiple environmental benefits arrive when natural farming is used instead of the harmful chemical based regular farming.

The environmental impacts of Natural benefits are as follows-:

Reduced use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides: One of the key benefits of natural farming is that it reduces the need for synthetic fertilizers and pesticides, which can have harmful environmental impacts. Synthetic fertilizers can leach into waterways, causing pollution and harming aquatic ecosystems. Pesticides can also harm beneficial insects and other wildlife, as well as potentially contaminating soil and water.

Improved soil health: Natural farming practices, such as cover cropping and crop rotation, can help improve soil health and reduce erosion. This can have positive environmental impacts by reducing the amount of sediment and nutrients that are carried into waterways, which can harm aquatic ecosystems.
Reduced greenhouse gas emissions: Natural farming practices like composting and reduced tillage can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. Composting can help sequester carbon in the soil, while reduced tillage can reduce the amount of carbon dioxide released from the soil.
Water conservation: Natural farming practices like drip irrigation and rainwater harvesting can help conserve water in areas where water is scarce. This can have important environmental benefits by reducing the amount of water that needs to be withdrawn from rivers and groundwater sources, which can harm aquatic ecosystems.
Biodiversity conservation: Natural farming practices can help promote biodiversity by creating habitats for beneficial insects and other wildlife, as well as by reducing the use of pesticides and synthetic fertilizers that can harm wildlife. This can have important environmental benefits by supporting healthy ecosystems and promoting the conservation of species.

Proposed Solutions

A lot can be done to mitigate the devastating effects of climate change on agriculture and the environmental damage caused by agricultural practices.

Natural farming can be practiced as discussed earlier keeping in mind the numerous benefits that arrive with it. However, using natural farming is not completely viable as the yields using this method are too low and would be inefficient in sustaining the entire populations.

Apart from that, there are two sides to this possible change.

Action can be taken to regulate this climatic change along the world with governmental regulatory practices on deforestation, encouraging re-afforestation, using organic farming methods, reducing carbon footprint, educating the masses etc.

It also comes down to everyone to make their best efforts while battling climate changes.

Here are 10 steps as per UN that must be undertaken on a individual basis to help fight this change-:

Fig. 5- “Start with ten impactful actions” ~UN

On the contrary, new technologies and methods can be adopted to make the crops more resistant. Some sustainable technologies are as follow-:

Develop resilient crop varieties that can withstand climate change-related challenges like rising temperatures, droughts, and floods.
Adopt precision agriculture to maximise the use of resources such as water and fertilisers. This will help increase crop yield even in harsh situations.
Encourage environmentally friendly agricultural methods like crop rotation, organic farming, and reducing deforestation. These methods assist in preserving soil moisture and lowering pollution.
Provide subsidies and tax incentives to farmers to switch to sustainable and eco-friendly agricultural methods.
Change agricultural policies to favour small-scale, local farming over extensive monocultures and industrial farming. Food production becomes more climate-adaptive as a result.
Invest in cutting-edge technologies like hydroponics and vertical farming that use less water and land.
Efforts should be made to strengthen international cooperation. By conducting integrated researches and taking collective action, a huge dent can be created.
Crop rotation should be encouraged alongside promoting cultivation of indigenous and traditional crops which are more climate-resilient.
Governments can provide weather-based crop advisories to help them make better informed decisions.

Increased funding for enhanced research focused on developing better climate-resilient crops along with other strategies and technologies.

Current Government Initiatives

Indian remains one of the most severely impacted countries from climate change. In order to mitigate the risks, the Indian Government has launched several relief schemes in the past to provide farmers the much-needed help.

The initiatives are as follows-:

National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC): It was released by the Prime Minister on 30^th June, 2008. NAPCC outlines a national strategy intended to help the nation adapt to climate change and improve India’s ecological sustainability.

National Mission on Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA): NMSA derives its mandate from Sustainable Agriculture Mission, which is one of the eight Missions outlined under NAPCC.

It has been developed to increase agricultural productivity, particularly in rainfed areas, with a focus on integrated farming, efficient water use, managing soil health, and synchronising resource conservation.

National Food Security Mission (NFSM): Launched in October 2007, it was adopted in a resolution by the National Development Council (NDC) with a plan to increase the annual production of rice by 10 million tonnes, wheat by 8 million tonnes and pulses by 2 million tonnes by the end of the Eleventh Plan (2011-12).

There are 8 major components of NFSM targeting different crops. They are as follows-

NFSM-Rice
NFSM-Wheat
NFSM-Pulses
NFSM-Coarse Cereals
NFSM-Nutri Cereals
NFSM-Commercial Crops
NFSM-Oilseeds
NFSM Seed Village Program

National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA): It is a flagship network project launched by GOI in 2011. The project’s objectives include conducting strategic research on adaptation and mitigation, showcasing technologies on farmer fields, and raising awareness among farmers and other stakeholders about how to reduce the effects of climatic change on agriculture.

Conclusion

Agriculture and climate change have a complicated and interdependent relationship in India. Throughout the article, we have discussed how agriculture is affected by change in climate and in turn it also affects the environment through emissions. This interrelationship however, poses innumerable threats to our farmers.

This calls for more investment and research in latest scientific technologies and methods.

Climate-smart agricultural practises, drought- and flood-resistant crop varieties, and renewable energy initiatives are just a few of the promising initiatives currently under way. However, greater political commitment is required in India to encourage greater investments and collaborations between the public sector, academic institutions, farmers, and the private sector. In order to guarantee long-term food security and the prosperity of agricultural communities, India needs to give this issue a higher priority in its policies. We as a country can overcome the risks posed by climate change to agriculture with concerted and ambitious measures, and may even turn obstacles into opportunities. But before it is too late, it is necessary to find comprehensive solutions to this complex relationship.